Greater Vancouver Condo Market 2011 Forecast
At the beginning of 2010 the Vancouver condo market was looking good. Sales and prices had recovered from the big dump in 2008 and trends were still pointing to further increases. But it didn't happen. Sales dropped and price increases stalled out. And at the beginning of 2011, the outlook for the Greater Vancouver condo market looks totally different.
High Rise Market Forecast
MLS high rise sales are expected to remain fairly flat over the next 12 months with sales generally below 400 units a month. The trend for high rise sales is now showing a decline of about 3% in 2011. It's not a shocking decline and depending on how the economy, interest rates and immigration from China plays out, there may not be a decline in sales at all. But a major increase in sales is also not in the forecast.
The average price per square foot for high rise condos sold through MLS increased by just 1% in 2010. The forecast change for 2011 is also 1%. However, expected price changes vary from market to market. Average MLS price per square foot is expected to increase by about 5% over the next 12 months in Downtown and Westside Vancouver. Average prices in Richmond could increase by a similar amount. Burnaby, Coquitlam-Port Moody-PoCo and North Vancouver high rise markets could see a 3% to 7% drop in prices.
Low Rise Market Forecast
The outlook for MLS low rise condo sales over the next 12 months is similar to that of the high rise market. Little change of any major improvement in sales and most likely about a 3% decline in sales when compared to 2010 sales. Suburban markets appear to be especially vulnerable to potential declines in sales in 2011. The trend analysis shows MLS low rise sales declining by 10% or more in Coquitlam-Port Moody-PoCo, North Surrey and South Surrey-White Rock. Sales in Eastside Vancouver could also drop by more than 10% over the next 12 months.
The MLS low rise market looks especially vulnerable when considering expected changes in average selling price per square foot. Since hitting a high of $386 per square foot in May, the average price per square foot has dropped by more than 10%. The average price per square foot of low rise condos sold through MLS in December was $349. The average list price was $326 per square foot. Over the past three months, asking prices have had to drop by an average of 5% to make a sale. At the very best, the low rise market can expect an average decline of about 1% in 2011.
Townhouse Market Forecast
The MLS townhouse market was also not immune to the general decline in sales experienced by Greater Vancouver condo markets in 2010. Total sales in 2010 were down by 47% from 2009. Further declines in sales are expected in 2011 but not as severe. A 9% decline in sales is forecast for 2011. All the major townhouse markets are expected to have declining sales over the next 12 months. North Surrey is expected to have the biggest decline with a drop of 13% in MLS townhouse sales.
Unlike the high rise and low rise markets, the average selling price per square foot has actually increased over the past 12 months; 14% since December 2009. Over the next 12 months, the average price per square foot for townhouse condos sold through MLS is expected to increase by about 4%. With an expected decline in sales in all markets, it will be interesting to see if the townhouse market can maintain a positive trend in selling prices.
More detailed information on sales and price trends is available from Strategics
for individual markets and sub-markets.
Contact Strategics for more information.
phone/fax +1-604-608-3192 (voice mail)
email strategics@vancouvercondoreport.ca
skype frank.schliewinsky
mobile +60-17-429-7064 /+66-81-080-5717