Another Look at Speculative Listings

			Vancouver Condo Report Special Report - Another Look at Speculative Listings Latest Update: Feb 11-12

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Special Report - Another Look at Speculative Listings
October 25, 2010

Last February, Strategics Vancouver Condo Report ran an analysis of potential speculative listings on MLS. Active apartment listings that were less than one year old and not occupied by the owner were assumed to be purchased by speculators. At the end of January 2010, approximately 5,400 apartment condominiums were listed on MLS in Greater Vancouver. Of these, 1,300 were new apartment units that were either vacant, tenant-occupied or under construction and not occupied by the owner.

Over the past eight months, the situation has changed and not for the better if you're one of those trying to get rid of that "sure bet". At the end of September, the number of active apartment listings on MLS had increased to just over 8,600 units and the number of estimated speculative apartment listings had increased to 2,100 units.

The biggest change since last January has been the increase in apartment listings in Coquitlam-Port Moody-PoCo; from a total of 680 in January to 2,180 in September.

A closer look shows that almost all the new listings in Coquitlam-Port Moody-PoCo are probably speculative listings and most of these are in high rise projects. Other markets with a high number of speculative listings are Downtown Vancouver, North Surrey and South Surrey-White Rock.

Speculative high rise listings in Coquitlam-Port Moody-PoCo have an average list price of $440,855 which is down by an average of $4,100 from their original list price. Still, the average speculative high rise condo in this market has been sitting on the shelf for 41 days. The average price of the five new high rise units that sold in September was $427,940. Five down and only 253 to go.

The average list price of the speculative low rise condos in Coquitlam-Port Moody-PoCo at the end of September was $323,000; down by only $1,100 from the original list price. Perhaps those hoping to sell their new low rise condo in Coquitlam-Port Moody-PoCo are fairly confident of making a sale. After all, the average selling price of new low rise condos in September was $361,000 and the average unit has been on the market for just 35 days. And with sales averaging 9 a month it'll only take 22 months to move the 200 speculative listings now on the market.

For more information on speculative listings or in-depth analysis of any of the MLS apartment or townhouse markets, contact Strategics.